Sample · Monday 14 September 2026
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This is a sample from Monday 14 September 2026, shown in full exactly as members read it. It is not today's analysis.
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21 fixtures11 competitionsTap a match for the full reading
The strongest readings
These are the readings the model puts at 70% or more. Roughly three in ten of them still do not happen: this is the model's confidence, not a promise.
Ukrainian Premier League
Dynamo Kyiv v Epitsentr DunayivtsiDynamo Kyiv to win · 13:30 BST60%
Dynamo Kyiv v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Dynamo Kyiv to win60%
60% Dynamo Kyiv22% draw18% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- Dynamo Kyiv are expected to score twice Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's output, yet one-one is the likeliest single scoreline.
- Dynamo Kyiv control games rather than trade them: more shots than most, and fewer allowed.
- If the strands are wrong together, they fall together; no single fact stands alone to hold this case up.
Last five, oldest first
Dynamo Kyiv at homeLWWLW
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi awayLDWLL
Shakhtar Donetsk v ChornomoretsShakhtar Donetsk to win · 16:00 BST76%
Shakhtar Donetsk v Chornomorets
Shakhtar Donetsk to win76%
76% Shakhtar Donetsk15% draw9% Chornomorets
- Shakhtar Donetsk are set to score considerably more than Chornomorets, with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline.
- Shakhtar Donetsk control games by keeping possession and shooting more, while allowing fewer attempts against them.
- History between these sides at this level is too thin to confirm whether Chornomorets can break that pattern here.
- If Shakhtar Donetsk do not win, a draw is far likelier than an away victory for Chornomorets.
Last five, oldest first
Shakhtar Donetsk at homeWWWWW
Chornomorets awayLLLLW
AFC Champions League Elite
Neftchi v Al Quwa Al JawiyaNeftchi to win · 14:45 BST65%
Neftchi v Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Neftchi to win65%
65% Neftchi21% draw14% Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- Neftchi are expected to score more than twice what Al Quwa Al Jawiya manage, with 2–0 the likeliest scoreline.
- These two rarely meet, so the scoring gap rests on other opponents rather than direct record.
- A draw remains a plausible outcome if Neftchi fail to convert their expected dominance into goals.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Tractor SaziToo close to call · 17:00 BSTNo call
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai v Tractor Sazi
Too close to call
37% Shabab Al Ahli Dubai29% draw34% Tractor Sazi
- Nothing in the evidence separates a draw, a home win or an away win here.
- Shabab Al Ahli Dubai control possession and shots, yet concede fewer than most sides in their league.
- Both sides carry the same scoring comparison, with 1-1 the single likeliest scoreline.
- These clubs meet so rarely that our analysis compares them through other opponents, not directly.
Al Shamal v Al-Ittihad FCAl Shamal will not win · 17:00 BST70%
Al Shamal v Al-Ittihad FC
Al Shamal will not win70%
30% Al Shamal24% draw46% Al-Ittihad FC
- Al Shamal are expected to score 1.4 to Al-Ittihad's 1.7 — likeliest 1–1.
- These sides have rarely faced each other, so the comparison rests on how each performs against common opponents.
Esteghlal FC v Al SaddToo close to call · 19:15 BSTNo call
Esteghlal FC v Al Sadd
Too close to call
39% Esteghlal FC25% draw36% Al Sadd
- Esteghlal FC and Al Sadd are evenly matched in attack, each side likely to score around one and a half goals.
- Direct history between these sides is sparse, so the comparison rests on how each performs against common opponents.
- The main alternative to a home win here is an away win rather than a draw.
Al-Ahli Jeddah v PakhtakorAl-Ahli Jeddah to win · 19:15 BST58%
Al-Ahli Jeddah v Pakhtakor
Al-Ahli Jeddah to win58%
58% Al-Ahli Jeddah23% draw19% Pakhtakor
- A single goal in either direction would change the outcome, so Al-Ahli Jeddah's advantage is thin.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept seven clean sheets in their last twelve matches.
- We are comparing them through other opponents rather than through each other.
Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Wasl FCAl-Qadisiyah FC to win · 19:15 BST68%
Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Wasl FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC to win68%
68% Al-Qadisiyah FC18% draw14% Al-Wasl FC
- Al-Qadisiyah FC are expected to score more than twice what Al-Wasl FC manage, with 2–1 the likeliest scoreline.
- Al-Wasl FC control games with more of the ball and more shots, yet the gap in output still favours Al-Qadisiyah FC.
- Al-Wasl FC win seven corners a game, yet that edge in set-piece opportunity does not close the difference in expected output.
Serie A
Como v ParmaComo to win · 17:30 BST63%
Como v Parma
Como to win63%
63% Como23% draw13% Parma
- Como control games rather than trade them: more of the ball, more shots, fewer allowed.
- Parma get seven shots a game, fewer than most in Serie A, against a side hard to break down.
- Team news is incomplete: an unknown absence could shift the balance before kick-off.
Last five, oldest first
Como at homeWWLDW
Parma awayDWLLL
Torino v AS RomaRoma to win · 17:30 BST55%
Torino v AS Roma
Roma to win55%
20% Torino25% draw55% AS Roma
- Roma are expected to score more than Torino, but the gap is narrow enough that one goal decides the outcome either way.
- Roma give up eleven shots a game, fewer than most sides in Serie A.
- Roma have won four of their last five on the road.
Last five, oldest first
Torino at homeWDWDL
AS Roma awayLWWWW
Inter v UdineseInter to win · 19:45 BST73%
Inter v Udinese
Inter to win73%
73% Inter17% draw10% Udinese
- Inter control games rather than trade them, holding more of the ball, more shots, and fewer allowed.
- Udinese lack Zaniolo, Solet and four others, a big hole in attack already built into the scoring picture.
- Inter have won four of their last five matches at home.
- A draw remains the likeliest alternative to an Inter win, and that changes only if Udinese hold firm.
Last five, oldest first
Inter at homeWWDWW
Udinese awayWDWLW
Eliteserien
Bodo/Glimt v SandefjordBodo/Glimt to win · 18:00 BST77%
Bodo/Glimt v Sandefjord
Bodo/Glimt to win77%
77% Bodo/Glimt14% draw8% Sandefjord
- Bodo/Glimt have won five of their last five at home.
- Bodo/Glimt have kept eight clean sheets in their last 12.
- Sandefjord's shot count flatters them: fewer of those shots come from inside the box than most in this division.
- That box-share gap is the caution: if Sandefjord convert more of theirs, the scoring comparison narrows.
Last five, oldest first
Bodo/Glimt at homeWWWWW
Sandefjord awayLLLLW
Superliga
FC Midtjylland v BrondbyFC Midtjylland to win · 18:00 BST51%
FC Midtjylland v Brondby
FC Midtjylland to win51%
51% FC Midtjylland26% draw23% Brondby
- FC Midtjylland are expected to score more, yet the likeliest single scoreline is a draw.
- FC Midtjylland give up ten shots a game, fewer than most in the Superliga.
- Brondby are missing Ambaek, Binks and another player, already reflected in their lower expected output.
Last five, oldest first
FC Midtjylland at homeDLWWD
Brondby awayLWDWL
Süper Lig
Gaziantep FK v FenerbahçeFenerbahçe to win · 18:00 BST53%
Gaziantep FK v Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe to win53%
23% Gaziantep FK24% draw53% Fenerbahçe
- Fenerbahçe spend long spells camped in the opposition half, winning well more corners a game than most in the division.
- Gaziantep FK have kept one clean sheet in their last twelve matches, leaving them exposed.
- The margin is thin enough that a single goal changes the outcome of this fixture.
Last five, oldest first
Gaziantep FK at homeWLLDL
Fenerbahçe awayWLWLW
Cypriot First Division
Krasava Ypsonas v ArisKrasava Ypsonas will not win · 18:00 BST74%
Krasava Ypsonas v Aris
Krasava Ypsonas will not win74%
26% Krasava Ypsonas28% draw46% Aris
- Recent form favours Krasava Ypsonas, with one win in three against none in five for Aris.
- Aris have not won any of their last five on the road, a case against that reading.
- The reading rests on recent form; if attacking strength is the truer guide here, it points the other way.
Last five, oldest first
Krasava Ypsonas at homeLWD
Aris awayLLLDL
Primeira Liga
Rio Ave v EstrelaToo close to call · 18:45 BSTNo call
Rio Ave v Estrela
Too close to call
41% Rio Ave26% draw33% Estrela
- Rio Ave's home record argues for Estrela, but the result comparison argues for Rio Ave.
- Rio Ave are expected to score more, yet the single likeliest scoreline is a draw at one-one.
- Rio Ave have conceded 23 goals in their last twelve matches, Estrela the same; neither defence keeps many out.
Last five, oldest first
Rio Ave at homeDDLLL
Estrela awayLLDDW
Moreirense v MaritimoMarítimo will not win · 20:15 BST75%
Moreirense v Maritimo
Marítimo will not win75%
50% Moreirense25% draw25% Maritimo
- Moreirense are expected to score more than Marítimo, with 1-0 the likeliest scoreline.
- Moreirense take eight shots a game, fewer than most sides in the Primeira Liga.
- If the strands are wrong together, the whole case collapses at once.
Last five, oldest first
Moreirense at homeWWDDL
Maritimo awayLLLWL
SC Braga v EstorilBraga to win · 20:45 BST66%
SC Braga v Estoril
Braga to win66%
66% SC Braga18% draw16% Estoril
- Estoril Praia have not won any of their last five matches on the road.
- SC Braga have kept five clean sheets in their last twelve matches.
- If these strands are wrong together, the case for SC Braga collapses with them.
Last five, oldest first
SC Braga at homeWDDDW
Estoril awayLDDLL
Segunda División
Celta de Vigo II v EibarToo close to call · 19:30 BSTNo call
Celta de Vigo II v Eibar
Too close to call
39% Celta de Vigo II29% draw32% Eibar
- Nothing here separates a home win, draw or away win.
- Eibar have kept eight clean sheets in their last twelve, a mark that argues against that scoreline.
- History at this level offers almost nothing: these sides have not played enough to ground a forecast.
Last five, oldest first
Celta de Vigo II home and awayDWLW
Eibar awayWWLLW
Premier League
Leeds v NewcastleToo close to call · 20:00 BSTNo call
Leeds v Newcastle
Too close to call
37% Leeds28% draw35% Newcastle
- Newcastle spend long spells camped in the opposition half, winning well more corners a game than most in the division.
- Newcastle's absences thin their attack but do not shift the scoring picture, with both sides close to level.
- Leeds have won three of their last five at home, though two of those wins came against bottom-third opponents.
Last five, oldest first
Leeds at homeDWWWD
Newcastle awayLLDLW
La Liga
Villarreal v Real BetisVillarreal to win · 20:00 BST55%
Villarreal v Real Betis
Villarreal to win55%
55% Villarreal22% draw23% Real Betis
- Villarreal carry a narrow scoring edge over Real Betis, with the single likeliest score a one-one draw.
- Villarreal have not kept a clean sheet in their last twelve matches, leaving them vulnerable at the back.
- Real Betis take 13 shots a game, more than most sides in La Liga.
Last five, oldest first
Villarreal at homeWWLWL
Real Betis awayWDLWL
Released edition 2026-09-14-analysis#r4, approved 2026-09-14 09:39 UTC. Every reading was published before its kick-off.
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